The associated work plan is composed of ten (10) Working Packages.
Working Package 1: Coordination activities
The objective on the WP1 is to develop the most efficient management support to the whole consortium, allowing its members to implement the project with maximum efficiency.
Working Package 2: Database creation and numerical modeling system installation
The objective on the Work Package 2 is to develop a database with all the necessary existing meteorological data and install the numerical modeling system WRF. The database will include all necessary existing data that will be used for the proposed project, encompassing data collection, quality control, processing (if necessary) and storage, while it will frequently updated during project's implementation.
Working Package 3: Investigation of meteorological drought in Thessaly
Work Package 3 will incorporate the investigation of the meteorological drought for the region of Thessaly and the necessity of finding ways of acting in order to reduce it. A study using meteorological data (air temperature, precipitation, humidity, atmospheric pressure and wind) from Larissa weather station will be performed for a period of 60 years (1950-2010), using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The behavior of the two main parameters of climate, temperature and precipitation, over time will reveal the trend and confirm the transition to warmer and drier conditions. Further analysis of precipitation also may reveal fewer rain days of higher intensity, which have a significant impact on region's water balance.
Working Package 4: Synoptic classification of present and future circulation patterns
The objective on the Work Package 4 is to perform synoptic classification of near-present and future circulation patterns and select representative case studies in order to meet the objectives of DAPHNE. The prevailing synoptic conditions in the greater area of central and northern Greece, during the 10-year period 2001-2010, will be classified according to Karacostas et al. (1992), one by one day, according to the general circulation pattern of the middle troposphere. The daily analyses of ECMWF at 500 hPa at 1200 UTC will be utilized. Following the same methodology and procedure, the mid-tropospheric synoptic circulation patterns projected by RegCM3 regional climate model under the IPCC scenario A1B for the greater area of interest, during the period 2041-2050, will also be classified. To meet the project objectives, representative cases of the near-present and future synoptic conditions will be selected for the model simulations on the WP6.
Working Package 5: Measurement campaigns
Within WP5 will take place the core experimental work of DAPHNE, which is a quite complex task. Meteorological measurements, aircraft flights, seeding procedures and flights, weather radar measurement from TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting) and chemical samplings, will be scheduled according to the meteorological forecasts. The specially equipped aircraft and the necessary personnel (technicians, pilots, etc) will be stand by, to perform in-situ measurements and cloud seeding on selected clouds, based upon the WRF forecast, the TITAN nowcasting system and the existing expertise knowledge. At the same time, soil and water samples will be taken, in order to perform the impacts study analysis. Sampling from background areas will also take place for comparison purposes.
Working Package 6: High resolution meteorological simulations
The objectives of this Work Package are the production and evaluation of high resolution simulations of the prevailing meteorological conditions during selected cases. The WRF model will be implemented in order to produce high spatiotemporal resolution simulations (1km x 1km) in the area of Thessaly for the representative cases of near-past and future-projected synoptic conditions that were selected in Work Package 4. The meteorological fields produced by the WRF simulations of the near-past and present cases will be statistically evaluated against observational data and gridded analyses using verification statistics (Bias, MAE, RMSE and other forecast skill scores). Emphasis will be given in the area of Thessaly.
Working Package 7: Adaptation, redevelopment and implementation of the 3D-Cloud Model
The objectives of this WP7 are concentrated to the adaptation, redevelopment and application of the 3D cloud model, initially developed by Telenta and Aleksic (1986) and modified by Spiridonov and Curic (2003). The model will be applied to representative cases of present-weather and future projected conditions (WP4), using the actual radiosonde data of the nearest upper air station (Thessaloniki airport) and the output of WRF simulations (WP6). The cloud model sensitivity to the different sources of input data (radiosonde, WRF) will be assessed for the present-weather cases. This assessment is crucial for a complete understanding of the results and their proper explanation in the future projected conditions.
Working Package 8: Synthesis and development of the Conceptual Model
The expertise knowledge and the careful synthesis of all collected data, which is one of the main objectives of the proposed project, will lead to the formation of a well thought and scientifically sound conceptual model that will test feasibility potential over the examined area. Data information acquired from several sources, as: meteorological, radiosonde, high resolution model simulation, weather radar, aircraft, seeding trials, etc., will contribute to establish the principles and the fundamentals for the development and creation of the conceptual model. The development of the Conceptual Model (CM) will mostly rely upon the cloud base and top meteorological characteristics, the temperature, humidity, vertical velocity and liquid water cloud profiles, and many other important parameters. The CM will be seasonally dependent, evolving throughout the rainfall period.
Working Package 9: Impact of seeding material on water and soil
The objective on the WP9 is the compilation of an environmental impact assessment study, investigating the potential impact of the cloud seeding material on water and soil. The assessment will be based on the estimation of the seeding material (AgI) and will include measurements that will take place in areas were seeding material has been dispersed. Samples will be taken from both water resources and soil, in order to identify and measure the concentration of silver (Ag) on it. The samples will be compared against analogous measurements taken from undisturbed from seeding material areas (background measurements). The calculated concentrations will be compared to the existing acceptable toxicity threshold limits.
Working Package 10: Dissemination
The objective on the WP10 is to foster and coordinate dissemination activities of the project results at scientific, public, and stakeholder levels. This work package includes preparation and organization of all the dissemination activities of the project, targeting to make public the work accomplished within the project through active participation of all partners. The dissemination tasks planned for the project are: • Building and maintenance of a project official web page • Organization of workshops • Scientific publications in peer reviewed journals • Participation in conferences • Talks in information days • Distribution of leaflets including the project's executive summary